City Reports

Phalodi betting market favors BJP victory in Rajasthan; Raje CM frontrunner

The market forecasts 115 to 118 seats for BJP and 68 to 70 for Congress.

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December 6, 2023, 8:49 am

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JAIPUR: Recent trends in Phalodi’s betting market suggest that ex-chief minister Vasundhara Raje may be appointed as the state CM if the BJP comes to power with a full majority. The counting of votes will take place tomorrow.

The trends also indicate a likely win for the BJP. Initially, the odds favored Congress, but post-voting on November 25, predictions have shifted. The market now forecasts 115 to 118 seats for BJP and 68 to 70 for Congress.

In terms of betting, a lower price indicates a higher chance of victory. Currently, BJP’s win is valued at 30 paise, significantly lower than the four to five rupees for Congress, hinting at a stronger possibility of a BJP win.

The focus isn’t just on the party win, but also on who will be Chief Minister. Vasundhara Raje is considered a likely choice if BJP doesn’t secure a full majority, with Arjunram Meghwal as a secondary option.

Specific predictions include surprising wins and losses for certain candidates. Notably, Ravindra Singh Bhati and Priyanka Chaudhary are expected to win in Barmer, while former Congress ministers BD Kalla and Bhanwar Singh Bhati might face defeat.

Jhalrapatan, a long-standing BJP stronghold under Vasundhara Raje, is again in the spotlight. Despite strong challenges in the past, Raje has maintained her seat, and current betting trends suggest her victory this time as well.

The BJP’s campaign strategy in Rajasthan centered around Prime Minister Narendra Modi, without announcing a Chief Ministerial face. Despite earlier talks of sidelining Vasundhara Raje due to anti-incumbency issues, she remained a key figure in BJP’s election strategy.

In the event of a less than absolute majority, Raje’s chances of becoming Chief Minister are high, with current odds favoring her at Rs 3. Meghwal stands as an alternative, with odds at Rs 6 to 7.

In Churu’s Taranagar seat, a close contest is expected between BJP’s Rajendra Rathod and senior Congress leader Narendra Budania. Record voting turnout indicates a possible narrow win for Rathod, as per the betting market predictions.

First published: December 2, 2023